KicktippAi experiment analysis

o3 (high) vs o3 (medium) vs o3 (low)

match-predictions/bundesliga-2025-26/pes-squad/repeated-match-slices/all-matchdays-after-20251202t230000z/random-15x10-seed-20260517-after-20251203

Task: repeated-match-slice Primary metric: avg_kicktipp_points Runs: 3 Pairings: 10

At a glance

Prediction distribution

o3 (high) n=150
2:1 49
1:2 43
0:1 18
1:0 13
0:3 8
2:0 8
0:2 3
1:3 3
3:1 2
1:1 1
2:2 1
3:2 1
o3 (medium) n=150
2:1 40
1:2 38
2:0 16
3:1 11
0:1 9
0:2 9
1:1 8
1:3 8
0:3 6
1:0 2
1:4 2
3:2 1
o3 (low) n=150
1:2 32
2:1 29
1:1 23
3:1 23
1:3 13
2:0 11
1:4 7
0:2 5
2:2 3
0:1 2
0:4 1
3:2 1

Matches

15 fixtures

Per-match averages and scoreline distributions are descriptive. Individual matches do not run significance tests.

Match 1

1. FC Heidenheim 18460:4FC Bayern München

Matchday 152025-12-21T17:30:00 UTC+01 (+01)
o3 (high) n=10
2.0000 avg points
0:3 2pt 8
0:2 2pt 1
1:3 2pt 1
o3 (medium) n=10
2.0000 avg points
0:3 2pt 6
1:3 2pt 2
1:4 2pt 2
o3 (low) n=10
2.2000 avg points
1:4 2pt 7
1:3 2pt 2
0:4 4pt 1
Match 2

Borussia Dortmund2:01899 Hoffenheim

Matchday 132025-12-07T17:30:00 UTC+01 (+01)
o3 (high) n=10
2.0000 avg points
2:1 2pt 9
1:0 2pt 1
o3 (medium) n=10
2.0000 avg points
2:1 2pt 9
3:2 2pt 1
o3 (low) n=10
2.0000 avg points
2:1 2pt 9
3:2 2pt 1
Match 3

VfL Wolfsburg3:11. FC Union Berlin

Matchday 132025-12-06T15:30:00 UTC+01 (+01)
o3 (high) n=10
0.2000 avg points
1:2 0pt 7
0:1 0pt 2
1:0 2pt 1
o3 (medium) n=10
0.0000 avg points
1:2 0pt 8
0:1 0pt 1
1:1 0pt 1
o3 (low) n=10
0.0000 avg points
1:2 0pt 6
1:1 0pt 3
0:1 0pt 1
Match 4

FC Augsburg2:0Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Matchday 132025-12-06T15:30:00 UTC+01 (+01)
o3 (high) n=10
0.0000 avg points
1:2 0pt 8
1:3 0pt 2
o3 (medium) n=10
0.0000 avg points
1:3 0pt 6
0:2 0pt 2
1:2 0pt 2
o3 (low) n=10
0.0000 avg points
1:3 0pt 10
Match 5

FC St. Pauli1:1RB Leipzig

Matchday 162026-01-27T20:30:00 UTC+01 (+01)
o3 (high) n=10
0.0000 avg points
0:1 0pt 5
1:2 0pt 3
0:2 0pt 2
o3 (medium) n=10
0.0000 avg points
0:2 0pt 7
1:2 0pt 2
0:1 0pt 1
o3 (low) n=10
0.0000 avg points
0:2 0pt 5
1:2 0pt 4
1:3 0pt 1
Match 6

1. FC Heidenheim 18462:21. FC Köln

Matchday 162026-01-10T15:30:00 UTC+01 (+01)
o3 (high) n=10
0.0000 avg points
0:1 0pt 6
1:2 0pt 3
2:1 0pt 1
o3 (medium) n=10
0.4000 avg points
1:2 0pt 7
1:1 2pt 2
0:1 0pt 1
o3 (low) n=10
1.2000 avg points
1:1 2pt 6
1:2 0pt 4
Match 7

VfB Stuttgart1:0SC Freiburg

Matchday 202026-02-01T15:30:00 UTC+01 (+01)
o3 (high) n=10
2.8000 avg points
2:1 3pt 7
2:0 2pt 1
3:1 2pt 1
3:2 3pt 1
o3 (medium) n=10
2.7000 avg points
2:1 3pt 7
3:1 2pt 3
o3 (low) n=10
2.3000 avg points
3:1 2pt 7
2:1 3pt 3
Match 8

RB Leipzig1:2FSV Mainz 05

Matchday 202026-01-31T15:30:00 UTC+01 (+01)
o3 (high) n=10
0.0000 avg points
2:1 0pt 9
3:1 0pt 1
o3 (medium) n=10
0.0000 avg points
2:1 0pt 6
3:1 0pt 4
o3 (low) n=10
0.0000 avg points
3:1 0pt 8
2:1 0pt 2
Match 9

SC Freiburg3:3Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Matchday 252026-03-07T15:30:00 UTC+01 (+01)
o3 (high) n=10
0.2000 avg points
1:2 0pt 8
0:1 0pt 1
1:1 2pt 1
o3 (medium) n=10
0.2000 avg points
1:2 0pt 4
0:1 0pt 3
2:1 0pt 2
1:1 2pt 1
o3 (low) n=10
1.0000 avg points
1:1 2pt 5
1:2 0pt 5
Match 10

Hamburger SV1:2RB Leipzig

Matchday 242026-03-01T19:30:00 UTC+01 (+01)
o3 (high) n=10
3.2000 avg points
1:2 4pt 8
2:1 0pt 1
2:2 0pt 1
o3 (medium) n=10
3.2000 avg points
1:2 4pt 8
1:1 0pt 2
o3 (low) n=10
2.0000 avg points
1:2 4pt 5
2:2 0pt 3
1:1 0pt 2
Match 11

VfB Stuttgart4:0Hamburger SV

Matchday 292026-04-12T18:30:00 UTC+02 (+02)
o3 (high) n=10
2.0000 avg points
2:1 2pt 8
1:0 2pt 1
2:0 2pt 1
o3 (medium) n=10
2.0000 avg points
2:1 2pt 8
3:1 2pt 2
o3 (low) n=10
2.0000 avg points
2:1 2pt 7
3:1 2pt 3
Match 12

Bayer 04 Leverkusen6:3VfL Wolfsburg

Matchday 282026-04-04T16:30:00 UTC+02 (+02)
o3 (high) n=10
2.0000 avg points
2:1 2pt 7
2:0 2pt 2
1:0 2pt 1
o3 (medium) n=10
2.0000 avg points
2:0 2pt 8
3:1 2pt 2
o3 (low) n=10
2.0000 avg points
2:1 2pt 4
3:1 2pt 4
2:0 2pt 2
Match 13

Bor. Mönchengladbach2:21. FC Heidenheim 1846

Matchday 282026-04-04T16:30:00 UTC+02 (+02)
o3 (high) n=10
0.0000 avg points
2:0 0pt 4
2:1 0pt 4
1:0 0pt 2
o3 (medium) n=10
0.0000 avg points
2:0 0pt 8
1:0 0pt 1
2:1 0pt 1
o3 (low) n=10
0.0000 avg points
2:0 0pt 9
3:1 0pt 1
Match 14

Bor. Mönchengladbach2:0FC St. Pauli

Matchday 262026-03-13T20:30:00 UTC+01 (+01)
o3 (high) n=10
2.0000 avg points
1:0 2pt 7
2:1 2pt 3
o3 (medium) n=10
1.6000 avg points
2:1 2pt 7
1:1 0pt 2
1:0 2pt 1
o3 (low) n=10
0.8000 avg points
1:1 0pt 6
2:1 2pt 4
Match 15

FC St. Pauli1:2FSV Mainz 05

Matchday 322026-05-03T16:30:00 UTC+02 (+02)
o3 (high) n=10
3.6000 avg points
1:2 4pt 6
0:1 3pt 4
o3 (medium) n=10
3.7000 avg points
1:2 4pt 7
0:1 3pt 3
o3 (low) n=10
3.5000 avg points
1:2 4pt 8
0:1 3pt 1
1:1 0pt 1

Summary
Datasetmatch-predictions/bundesliga-2025-26/pes-squad/repeated-match-slices/all-matchdays-after-20251202t230000z/random-15x10-seed-20260517-after-20251203
Task typerepeated-match-slice
Primary metricavg_kicktipp_points
Alpha0.0500

Friedman test across all paired runs; pairwise Wilcoxon signed-rank tests use holm correction, with bootstrap confidence intervals for paired differences.

Dataset metadata

repeated-match-slice dataset for 150 item(s) on random-15x10-seed-20260517-after-20251203

Field Value
Competitionbundesliga-2025-26
Communitypes-squad
Season2025/2026
Slicerandom-15x10-seed-20260517-after-20251203
Source Poolall-matchdays-after-20251202t230000z
Matches15
Repetitions10
Predictions150
Sample Size150
Sample Methodrepeated-match-slice
Sample Seed20260517
Scoperepeated-match-slice
Slice Kindrepeated-match-slice
Source Datasetmatch-predictions/bundesliga-2025-26/pes-squad
Starts After2025-12-03T00:00:00 Europe/Berlin (+01)

Run ranking

Rank Run Model Primary metric
1o3 (high)o3 (high)20.0000
2o3 (medium)o3 (medium)19.8000
3o3 (low)o3 (low)19.0000

Multi-run comparison

Friedman p-value 0.9726
o3 (high)o3 (medium)0.20000.79691.0000no4/1/5
o3 (high)o3 (low)1.00000.29690.8906no5/1/4
o3 (medium)o3 (low)0.80000.65621.0000no4/2/4

Per-item win/tie/loss counts compare paired Kicktipp points for the listed run ordering on each prepared dataset item.